威尼斯人平台

讲座题目：The Origin of New Fertility Norm in China: Role of Laws Reform（中国新生育规范的起源：法律和制度的作用）

主讲人：刘凯欣 暨南大学

讲座时间：2025年03月04日14:30

讲座地点：学院229

讲座内容摘要：

This paper shows that the severe fertility control policies in China have a lasting suppressing impact on the fertility norms and actual fertility across generations. We overcome the difficulty of measuring social norms of fertility, through a carefully designed vignette experiment. We establish the causality of policy effects using a cohort-province difference-in-difference framework. We find that a one standard error increase in the maternal-age exposure to fertility restriction policies of respon-dents’ parents leads to a significant reduction in their normative views of fertility by 0.24 standard error. The policy’s effect should be viewed as a top-down destruction of Confucious fertility culture. We show that other important economic drivers for declining fertility like rising gender equality, housing price boom, and international trade openness, accelerate the norm reshuffle process. This indicating a co-evolving relation between fertility and fertility norm.

本文研究表明，中国生育控制政策对生育规范和实际生育行为产生了跨代的持久影响。我们通过精心设计的虚拟情境实验，克服了衡量生育社会规范的难题，并采用队列-省份双重差分框架确立了政策效应的因果关系。研究发现，受访者父母在育龄期经历的生育限制政策每增加一个标准差，会导致受访者对生育的规范性观念显著下降0.24个标准差。这种政策效应被视为对儒家生育文化的自上而下的破坏。我们还发现，其他导致生育率下降的重要经济因素，如性别平等程度的提高、房价上涨以及国际贸易开放，加速了生育规范的重塑过程。这表明生育行为与生育规范之间存在协同演化的关系。

主讲人个人信息：

Kaixin Liu is an Assistant Professor at the Institute for Economic and Social Research of Jinan University in Guangzhou China. He graduated from Wuhan University, with bachelor degree with mathematical economics major. He obtained his Ph.D. in economics from the University of Rochester. Kaixin works in public economics, political economics, labor economics, and inequality. He is an applied economist with broad interest in economic theory. He serve his referee jobs for JOLE,CER,JPopE. He is affiliated with GLO. He received Young Economist Award by EEA in 2020.

刘凯欣，中国广州暨南大学经济与社会研究院助理教授。他毕业于武汉大学，获得数理经济学专业的学士学位，并在罗切斯特大学获得经济学博士学位。研究领域包括公共经济学、政治经济学、劳动经济学和不平等问题。作为一名应用经济学家，他对经济理论有着广泛的兴趣。他曾为《劳动经济学杂志》（JOLE）、《中国经济评论》（CER）和《人口经济学杂志》（JPopE）担任审稿人，并且是全球劳动组织（GLO）的成员。2020年，他获得了欧洲经济学会（EEA）颁发的青年经济学家奖。